The Oscar nominations are out, the debates are raging, and once again it’s time to test your instincts against those of the Academy. Welcome to the Umpteenth Annual Laemmle Oscar Contest, our favorite annual exercise in hope, hubris, and lovingly overthought predictions.

If last year proved anything, it’s that certainty can be a dangerous commodity. After all, a whopping 66.1% of Laemmle patrons were convinced Demi Moore would win Best Actress for The Substance, while only 10.7% correctly predicted Mikey Madison’s longshot victory for Anora. Consensus, as it turns out, is no guarantee of clairvoyance.

The same pattern emerged across the technical and animated races. In Best Film Editing, 35.6% of Laemmle patrons expected Conclave (edited by Nick Emerson) to prevail, compared with only 20.1% backing Anora and Sean Baker. Meanwhile, nearly half of patrons (49.3%) anticipated The Wild Robot would take Best Animated Feature, outpacing Flow, which drew 32.5% of the vote. In each case, confidence ran high—and accuracy proved elusive.

This year’s lineup looks just as volatile. Several major categories feel genuinely up for grabs, with no outcome that can be declared “locked” without inviting embarrassment. Best Picture, in particular, seems poised to divide even the most seasoned Oscar-watchers. That’s where you come in.

If you, dear cinephile, can accurately predict how the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will vote across all 23 categories (or come impressively close), you’ll win movie passes good at all Laemmle locations(!!) along with the quiet satisfaction of having outguessed the crowd. As always, the contest includes a tie-breaker: your best estimate of the ceremony’s total running time.

The 98th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 15, and we’ll announce the winners shortly afterward, complete with our signature snazzy charts and statistical deep-dives.

Want a real edge over the competition? Don’t overlook the short film categories. The animated, live-action, and documentary shorts are often where the widest gaps in knowledge—and therefore opportunity—exist. Seeing these nominees can dramatically improve your odds, and we’ll begin screening all three categories starting February 20th.

Good luck. Argue passionately. Second-guess everything. And remember: the Oscars rarely reward certainty, but they always reward participation.

Happy guessing!

– Your fellow cinephiles at Laemmle Theatres